Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’? – August 2021

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Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’? – August 2021

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of “normality” such as entertainment and leisure, high street shopping, and schools reopening. The result is an index that measures progress toward a post-pandemic world.

Our Return to Normal index

As the US continues its Covid-19 vaccination program, the Return to Normal Index measures human activity data relative to pre-pandemic levels. The index is constructed by our data scientists and fundamental analysts and tracks activities in the US, including travel, returning to work and school, brick-and-mortar shopping and eating out. By design, the index is focused on measuring components of daily life rather than economic indicators such as GDP growth. The percentage level will move closer to 100 as daily life normalises, and our analysts will update it on a regular basis.

What has changed?

The Return to Normal Index is now 86%, but the delta variant is very much on our minds and the minds of health authorities. It’s much more transmissible than the original strain of SARS-CoV 2 and other variants, meaning that one infected person can make even more people sick. As a result, daily case counts have been rising — especially in areas with lower vaccination rates.
Vaccines have been proven to be very effective at preventing Covid hospitalisations — even against the delta variant — but even for those who have been vaccinated, there’s still a risk of contracting the virus (these are called breakthrough infections). Because of higher infection rates, we are seeing health authorities, local leaders and even some individuals exercise more caution, so we’ve pushed out our base case of an expected return to normal to late September. This revised projection is based on evolving data that may impact return to school and return to work, and we are watching it closely.
Figure 1: The Return to Normal Index tracks activity compared with pre-pandemic levels as we progress to post-Covid life
August 1 normal range

Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 1 August 2021

What are we monitoring, and where is it at?

We are analysing the time people spend engaging in a broad set of activities outside their homes (Figure 2). The index components have implications for economic growth, but the primary objective is to monitor how close or far we are to returning to normal life.
Figure 2: Tracking inputs
Return to school travel entertainment workplace
Overall, our index suggests that we’re still 14% below pre-Covid activity levels, but some components of our index have already returned to normal levels. Activity for bricks-and-mortar spending and return to school are now into our normal range — spending gains are driven by pent-up demand, and school data has shown that there are plans for in-person schooling. Both numbers may fluctuate — spending may fall a bit as demand normalises; in-person schooling may fall if US districts change their plans in response to infection and hospitalisation rates. Activity numbers for some index components won’t return to where they were before Covid. Some changes in behaviour, such as working from home, are likely to stay with us for an extended period and because of this, activities such as business travel might take longer to reach the 90% threshold or pre-Covid levels.

What could drive change?

Because of the rising number of delta variant infections, we’re closely monitoring: the data on vaccine efficacy and the need for boosters; the public health response in terms of masking/restrictions; employer policies on return to office; and the emergence of new variants. The data on the delta variant is evolving, and if we see a large uptick in hospitalisations, our return to normal levels of activity could be impeded. We will likely learn a lot more in the upcoming weeks about the transmissibility of the delta variant, vaccine efficacy and whether people will need boosters. These datapoints could change our base case or downside case.
Figure 3: The Return to Normal Index over time – level as of 1 August 2021: 86%
Normal range estimated path of base case downside

Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 1 August 2021

This index continues to provide a framework as we analyse companies. It’s a roadmap for what normal activity might look like after Covid and how long it will take to get there. The information allows us to test a company’s own assumptions and make adjustments in our views as needed.
For investors, the Columbia Threadneedle Return to Normal Index can act the same way: it’s an additional input to consider as they research their individual asset allocation and portfolio decisions.
Understanding where we are on the path to normal life continues to be a critical question in 2021. This data input can help inform investors’ asset allocation decisions and set expectations on market activity.
6 August 2021
Paul DiGiacomo
Paul DiGiacomo
Head of Equity Research
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Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’? – August 2021

Important information

For use by Professional and/or Qualified Investors only (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is an advertising document.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other
Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future
results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisment has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港 有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities
(CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group
products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
columbiathreadneedle.com

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Important information

For use by Professional and/or Qualified Investors only (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is an advertising document.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other
Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future
results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisment has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港 有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities
(CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group
products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
columbiathreadneedle.com

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