Insights

Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

Russia objects to the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, a move that it believes encroaches on its sphere of influence and places the US at its doorstep. The invasion is likely to have a significant human toll, and our thoughts are certainly with the people in Ukraine.

Prior to the Russian action, investors were largely focused on high inflation and imminent rising interest rates. Now the focus has shifted to the attack’s expected impacts on energy, global growth, inflation, and central bank actions.

Energy: clarity needed on further sanctions

Simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine have pushed oil prices higher since the beginning of the year. Given a fragile high demand/tight supply dynamic, volatility in energy prices may continue, especially if sanctions on Russia ratchet up and provoke a further Russian response. Both the US and Europe are trying to penalise Russia – but without straining the energy markets and creating further inflationary pressure. Russia supplies an enormous amount of natural gas to Europe, and this cannot be swiftly replaced.

Greater vulnerability for growth and inflation in Europe

The US and Europe were already under pressure from high inflation due to a combination of supply issues and strong demand. But inflation and growth in Europe are more vulnerable to an energy price shock as, relative to the US, economies across the region are manufacturing and trade-heavy. In the US, the economy is more diversified and services-heavy, making it less sensitive to energy price shocks; while trade as a share of GDP is 23% (in comparison, it’s 81% in Germany)1.

The Fed is unlikely to change course on tightening monetary policy

For central banks, the geopolitical tensions introduce complexity on the timing and magnitude of rate hikes. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) strategy may be impacted more directly should the crisis escalate (and we may see it delay plans to withdraw monetary accommodation later this year). In the US, the Fed is unlikely to change course on tightening monetary policy and we continue to expect the first 25 basis point hike in the Fed Funds Rate in March.

The Fed will be looking for a slowdown in inflation and wage growth in the second half of 2022 as a guide on whether to accelerate or decelerate monetary tightening. Oil prices are unlikely to play a major role in this decision, unless any change were to impact the outlook for economic growth meaningfully.

From a credit perspective, most Russian companies are at the lower end of Investment Grade ratings and could be downgraded to High Yield as a result of sanction risks.

Market response

We are seeing a risk-off sentiment across emerging markets, as the possibility of imposed sanctions increases, although Russia and Ukraine together comprise around 3.5% of the Emerging Market Debt hard currency index. From a credit perspective, investment grade and high yield markets appear to be selling first and asking questions later. Most Russian companies are at the lower end of Investment Grade ratings and could be downgraded to High Yield as a result of sanction risks.

Our portfolios

Across global equities portfolios, we have no direct exposure to Russia or Ukraine, while our Global Emerging Market equities portfolios have around 4.5% investment in Russian companies2 with minimal exposure to Ruble-denominated names.

On the fixed income side, strategies such as Threadneedle (Lux) Global Investment Grade Credit Opportunities, Threadneedle (Lux) Global Corporate Bond, and Threadneedle (Lux) European Corporate Bond have no exposure to Russia or Ukraine. We have been selective in what we are doing in portfolios, focusing on fundamental credit research and bonds that are selling off at least as much as the market but with less negative connections to what could be a longer conflict.

Now is not the time to panic

Market corrections driven by wars and oil market disruptions have historically been sharp but short-lived. As ever, volatility creates an urge among investors to do something, but our guide continues to be to stay invested and focused on long-term goals. Active asset management can help investors ride out short-term shocks in markets while capitalising on longer-term trends.

While recent events have been a difficult period for markets, it’s important to remember that volatility can offer opportunities to identify valuation discrepancies, unearth hidden gems or add to existing holdings at opportune moments.

25 February 2022
Anwiti Bahuguna
Anwiti Bahuguna
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
William Davies
William Davies
Global Chief Investment Officer
Ed Al-Hussainy
Edward Al-Hussainy
Senior Interest Rate and Currency Analyst
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Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

1 The World Bank, data.worldbank.org, as at 25 Feb 2022 (last full year reported is 2020).
2 Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Bloomberg, as at 24 February 2022.

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is an marketing communication.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the ce (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L-2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: this document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is an marketing communication.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the ce (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L-2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: this document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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